Monday 16 May 2011

The Late Bloomers

 Baseball is a sport of tremendous patience. Time and time again, the sport has proven that success on the field demands arduous commitment. Both a good eye at the plate, and pinpoint pitch location requires thorough development. It is very rare that such talents are naturally endowed in players. Occasionally a Ken Griffey Jr. or an Alex Rodriguez will come along and stand as outliers to this trend, but generally players need time to mature. 

So is it any surprise then that Jose Bautista, at the age of 30, is currently on pace to set the highest OPS (on-base plus slugging) of all-time? Nearly at the ¼ mark of the season, Bautista’s 1.388 OPS has legitimized the late-blooming Dominican a season after skeptics downplayed his .995 OPS and 54 homers. 

Things just seem to keep getting better for Bautista... Last year, a refined swing brought power to Jose; this year, he has found plate discipline. His 35:19 bb to k ratio is a remarkable improvement from last season’s 100:116, helping raise his batting average. If his success ever came as a surprise, it's time to start believing. If fantasy season were to start today, it's conceivable to see Bautista flying 1st off the board.

Bautista epitomizes the success of patience and commitment. He was never a Griffey-type prodigy; his tremendous work ethic has solidified him as one of the best power hitters in baseball. His attitude rubs off on his team; just watch a Jays game and you’ll catch the veteran giving slugging tips to Escobar or Rajai Davis (as seen on today’s Jays Sportsnet telecast). Bautista has become a leader, and the prototypical symbol of the late bloomer.


***After all this praise, it must be said that his OPS is unsustainable, expect a regression.


Late Bloomers on the Wire (owned in less than 50% of Yahoo! Leagues): 

1) Colby Lewis: Age 31
I'm Cheating here because Lewis is owned in 58% of leagues. Lewis has turned things around in his last 3 starts. Tonight he posted a complete game, 7-strikeout effort against the Chicago White Sox. His two previous starts were against the meager Athletics and Mariners (2 runs and 3 runs allowed respectively), so his success should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, both the Mariners and Athletics are division rivals, and the Rangers will be seeing them frequently.
Colby takes on the St. Louis Cardinals on the weekend. Murderer's Row (Pujols, Holliday, Berkman) may not be so friendly. 
Despite, Lewis having proved himself in Japan with 189 and 186 strikeouts in 2008 and 2009, I would remain tentative with veteran.



2) Andres Torres: Age 33
Owned in just 33% of leagues, the journeyman Torres has seen a resurgence of late. His combination of power (16 hr in 2010) and speed (26 sb in 2010) hasn't let up in 2011, making him a viable option in deep mixed-leagues. Batting in the leadoff position should result in similar run totals from last season (roughly 80-90). Expect a slight regression in the power numbers.









John Willcock.

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